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When will it be possible to travel again?

ToAccording to Rosstat, in 2015, 34.4 million people left the Russian Federation, in 2018 - already 42 million. Of course, statistics take into account the number of departures, not people, but the figure is still impressive. But what awaits the tourism sector in 2020 and 2021, and when can you again go on a trip abroad or in Russia. How the structure and composition of the tourism sector will respond to the consequences of the pandemic caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus.

Statements by officials and conclusions about the possible timing of the resumption of travel

According to official information, as many as 7 prototypes of an anti-coronavirus vaccine are under active development by the FMBA of Russia (Federal Medical and Biological Agency).

This fact cannot but rejoice. However, if you delve into the essence of the FMBA statement, then the optimism disappears a little. As the current head of the Agency, Veronika Skvortsova, who is known for her ineffective and populist activities as the Minister of Health of Russia, said:

... "In an industrial volume, a vaccine against coronavirus in Russia will appear no earlier than in 11 months" ...

Skvortsova also vaguely noted that with the most optimistic forecasts for the completion of the development and testing of an effective vaccine that can really resist the new coronavirus, it will take a lot of time to organize full-scale production with the aim of subsequent vaccination of the population.

Also, the chief infectious disease specialist of the same Agency, V. Nikiforov, on Channel One, suggested that the end of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Russia could be expected by the beginning of summer, that is, by June of this year. According to his own assumption, the peak incidence will occur between April 6 and 12.

Based on these two statements (Skvortsova and Nikiforov), one cannot count on the real help of the vaccine, which will appear in the next 2021, in the near future.

The risk of negative consequences, including deaths, of COVID-19 infection will continue until a significant part of the Russian population develops immunity to this virus. It is possible to obtain a certain resistance either by recovering from COVID-19, or artificially - using serum or a vaccine.

Statements about the probable timing, voiced by Skvortsova, make it possible to draw conclusions about the time for a full-scale resumption of tourism activities in a negative scenario. Spring and summer 2021 is a great time to plan your travelswhen it will be safe to travel. Provided, of course, that there is no other misfortune like hantavirus.

What should you focus on when planning a tour in 2021?

In addition to determining the possibly optimal timing for travel planning after the coronavirus - spring summer 2021, we can identify a number of other points that in the future will significantly affect the functioning of the tourism sector as a whole.

  1. After the end of the epidemic caused by COVID-19, a significant growing demand for tourism products in most directions.
  2. Initially, the overall structure of tourist destinations will change, shifting from demanded foreign destinations to domestic Russian routes and destinations.
  3. Directions of foreign tourism will be reformatted. Expected refusal from previously popular destinations to countries where the new coronavirus has shown the greatest activity and demand growth to areas and regions minimally affected by the consequences of the pandemic.
  4. Can be expected growing demand for eco-tourism. "Ecological" destinations and tours, unlike tours to densely populated areas, provide the tourist with an additional sense of security and tranquility, which will be of no small importance during the post-pandemic period.
  5. The structure and composition of operators and agents in the tourist segment of the Russian business will undergo significant changes. Some companies will be announced bankrupt, and the other part that remained afloat - travelgide.ru, will carve up vacant market share and actively develop newly demanded areas.

It’s probably a little early to ask yourself the question “when you can travel” as forecasts will change over time. But what can now interest a tourist who has already bought a tour and wants to return the money paid for it? Of course only tourist rights in such a situation, and information on the adoption of Law No. 98-FZ, which specifies a new procedure for payments to tourists in case of restrictions on entry into a particular country.

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